Boeing boosts 20-year aircraft demand forecast 8.4%

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Published: June 17, 2011

Boeing 787. Photo: Courtesy, Boeing.

Boeing forecast demand for 33,500 new commercial aircraft worth $ 4 trillion through 2030 in its latest “Current Market Outlook” released Thursday. The 20-year aircraft demand projection is up 8.4% from the manufacturer’s 2010 demand forecast and up 15.5% from its 2009 projection. Market value over 20 years is up 11.1% from $ 3.6 billion projected last year.

“The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth said. “Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel—including economic growth, world trade and liberalization—all point to a healthy long-term demand.”

Boeing predicted average annual worldwide passenger traffic growth of 5.1% over the next 20 years. “The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market,” Boeing stated. “Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70% of the total,” up from 62% currently. Twin-aisles in 2030 will comprise 22% compared to 19% currently while regional jets’ share will dip from 15% currently to 5%, according to the manufacturer.

The global fleet will more than double from 19,410 aircraft at the end of 2010 to 39,530 aircraft in 2030, Boeing predicted. “Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to a more balanced airplane demand worldwide,” it explained. “Asia/Pacific is forecasted to need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $ 1.5 trillion. The region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth.”

Europe and North America in particular will require replacement aircraft for older models, according to the manufacturer. “In fact, we predict 94% of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011, with airplanes that are better for the environment, passengers and the airlines,” Boeing explained. “40% of all new airplanes delivered [worldwide] over the next two decades will be replacements.”

Regarding cargo, the company projected that the world freighter fleet will nearly double from 1,760 aircraft today to 3,500 in 2030. “Additions to the fleet will include 970 new-production freighters (market value of $ 250 billion) and 1,990 airplanes converted from passenger models,” Boeing stated. “Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity/80 tonnes) freighters will account for 690 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons /40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 280 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons/less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,240 standard-body conversions.”

The manufacturer forecast average annual global cargo traffic growth of 5.6% over the next two decades.

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