Airbus predicts demand for 736 new aircraft for Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands through 2030

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Published: October 7, 2011

Air New Zealand A320. By Rob Finlayson

Airbus forecast demand for 736 new freighter and passenger aircraft (with more than 100 seats) in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands over the next 20 years, valued at $ 98 billion.

The manufacturer said in its latest global market forecast that traffic growth between Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Island region is significantly faster than the world average of 4.8%. Traffic growth for China is 6.2%, India’s growth is 5.6% and growth for the rest of Asia is 5.7%.

Low-cost carriers (LCCs) will continue to expand and their market share of traffic between the region and Asia is expected to increase to around 35% by 2030, Airbus said.

The region’s growth rate is tipped to be 4.8% per year through 2030, matching the world average, but outstripping all other developed aviation markets, such as North America (2.5% domestic) and Western Europe (3.5% inter-regional).

The region’s requirement for 736 new passenger and freighter aircraft includes 468 single-aisles, 211 twin-aisles and 57 very large aircraft. Of these, 731 will be passenger aircraft. Nearly half will replace older models with more fuel-efficient ones.

In 20 years, the region’s passenger fleet will almost double from approximately 400 to more than 780 aircraft by 2030.

The region’s proximity to Southeast Asia, China and India will also drive traffic growth, said Airbus. China and India will be at the center of the world’s strongest demand for aircraft (34%) and by 2030, the largest share of traffic (33%).

This concentration of demand, together with its historical links to Western markets, will drive business and tourism in the region, Airbus said.

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