Bombardier slightly downgrades 20-year forecast

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Published: June 20, 2012

CS100. Courtesy, Bombardier

Bombardier projected global demand for 12,800 commercial aircraft with between 20 and 149 seats over the next 20 years, down 2.3% from its year-ago prediction (ATW Daily News, May 19, 2011). It cited forecasts for lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth than previously anticipated as well higher oil prices.

Nevertheless, the market for regional and low-end mainline passenger aircraft will be worth $ 630 billion over the next two decades, the Canadian manufacturer said. Just 300 aircraft in the 20-to-59-seat range will be delivered over the 20-year period, Bombardier noted. There will be 5,600 aircraft delivered in the 60-to-99-seat range while 6,900 will be required in the 100-to-149-seat market, it stated.

Bombardier projected that airlines will “shift in focus towards aircraft that are optimized for their intended segments, [which is] expected to be a catalyst for demand as airlines move away from derivatives of larger aircraft that were originally designed for larger capacity. Deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in the 100-to-149 seat segment are forecast to be worth more than $ 449 billion.”

Demand continues to move away from traditional markets such as North America and Western Europe and “towards emerging markets,” the manufacturer said. “In 2011, Bombardier increased the size of its commercial aircraft sales team, placing a strong emphasis on these regions to meet this demand. However, as with the business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the way in aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an expected 4,730 new aircraft, followed by China, with 2,220 aircraft, and Europe, including Russia and the CIS, with 2,240 aircraft.”

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